My Foolish Oscar Predictions

I'd like to think I’m an observer to the Oscars, I’d like to think I’m half an expert to it (okay, maybe 10%, the rest I obtain through various consensus, news, blogs and critics’ awards). Because everyone else is doing it, I thought I will join the party by doing my own Oscars prediction too.

I’m very sure I will do badly in my predictions, based on these four facts which proved to be true in previous years:

(1)    I tend to overthink. Sometimes I had it at my first instinct, but at second thought I changed it due to some unnecessary consideration. These second thoughts are toxic.

(2)    I tried to be different. I can’t help it. I like to take some risks because there’s no prize in getting high scores so I might as well go bold. If it happens, I get to brag; if it doesn’t (and this was always the case), I got nothing to lose.

(3)    I am bias. Sometimes I knew the movie was going to be shunned but my stubbornness told me to keep it because I want it to happen so much. This happened last year with Cloud Atlas.

(4)    Most importantly, no matter how intensively I follow every precursor or every blog, I am still an outsider when it comes to the voting body. The voting members are mostly from America or Europe which have totally different culture than us in Asia. We can never truly understand their way of thinking, what do they like or dislike, or what happened there around the time they cast their vote (timing is always the key, if the movie is fresh in your mind when you cast your vote, you are most likely to place it on top of your vote).

Now, my predictions:

Best Picture

American Hustle

12 Years a Slave

Gravity

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Philomena

Nebraska

The Wolf of Wall Street

Her

Saving Mr. Banks

This is hard to predict since they allow the number of nominees to be between 5 and 10, any number seems possible. It’s quite likely to be 9 because that was what happened in the past few years. But because I don’t like odd numbers I ended up with 10.

Result: Not bad, I predicted 10, 9 of them showed up except Saving Mr. Banks.

Best Director

David O Russell – American Hustle

Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

Alfonso Cuarón – Gravity

Spike Jonze – Her Alexander Payne - Nebraska

Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Everyone else is predicting Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips. I know I should be too, that looks like a safe bet and I’m likely to regret this prediction. But this branch snubbed Ben Affleck and Katherine Bigelow last year. Anything goes.

Result: They really do like Alexander Payne.

Best Actor

Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street

Bruce Dern – Nebraska

Christian Bale – American Hustle

See my point as being bold? Almost nobody predicted Christian Bale, and a lot of people had been saying Bruce Dern is losing heat. But since people like American Hustle a lot (I like it alright but not overly crazy for it) Christian Bale might be happening.  Bruce Dern has spent his whole career getting acquaintances among his peers they will likely to give him a nod.

Result: I should be proud I predicted Christian Bale, but I really hate David O Russell and his movie now. His movies are always overrated. Why are they so harsh on Tom Hanks? He was terrific in two movies this year yet not getting any love?

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks Meryl Streep - August: Osage County

Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Amy Adams – American Hustle

Judi Dench – Philomena

Up until last year, this category has been quite safe and easy to predict. Just go with most consensus. Then last year they went with that kid and that old French actress (seriously I can’t remember their names and I’m too lazy to google for them now). This year I’m gonna say they will be playing safe. Another reason why I predict Christian Bale is because I believe in Amy Adams’ chance and my OCD forces me to name both of them as they work as a team in the movie it will be imperfect to leave one of them out. It’s either both of them or none of them.

Result: They will nominate Meryl Streep in any role. ANY. My heart weeps for Emma Thompson now.

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Bradley Cooper – American Hustle

Daniel Brühl – Rush Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street

I don’t quite believe in Daniel Brühl’s chances despite him getting nominated in all the major precursors, but I do not know who to replace him with. Maybe the dearly departed James Gandolfini, I don’t know. The others are very likely to happen.

Result: Jonah Hill, 2-time Oscar nominee? Really???? It's a mad world.

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

June Squibb – Nebraska

Oprah Winfrey – The Butler Julia Roberts - August: Osage County

Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine

It’s weird that few months ago everyone had been saying no one can challenge Oprah in this category but now she is actually in danger of not even getting a nomination. But I think she will get in. American Hustle might repeat what last year’s overrated Silver Linings Playbook achieved and receive four acting nominations. As for Sarah Paulson, I know it’s bold, but they like the movie and they used to nominate two ladies from the same movie very frequently in the past few years. They took a break last year, it might happen again this year.

Result: No Oprah??? She was actually the best thing that happened to The Butler. Julia Roberts, boo! She was the lead, not supporting.

Best Original Screenplay

Her

Nebraska

Saving Mr. Banks Dallas Buyers Club

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Philomena

August: Osage County Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Best Animated Feature

The Wind Rises

Frozen

The Croods

Ernest & Celestine

Monster’s University     Despicable Minion Me 2

But why am I feeling minions will push someone out? But who? Maybe The Croods.
See? Told ya minions going to push someone out.

I do want to do the tech categories but I'm running out of time. So I'll settle at this. Come tonight I'll know just exactly how foolish I am, or just how genius I am... depending on my score.