And my crystal ball tells me:
BEST PICTUREWill Win : ARGO
Should Win : ZERO DARK THIRTY
Should Have Been Nominated : CLOUD ATLAS
When it was announced that Ben Afflect was not nominated for Best Director, everyone was shocked and had second thought on the chance of ARGO winning Best Picture. After all, it was so rare it only happened to 3 films previously, 2 of them during the very earliest stage of Oscar. But when ARGO won consecutively at the Critics Choice Award, Golden Globe, SAG, DGA, PGA & BAFTA, it is clear that Oscar is the movie's to lose now. However, ZERO DARK THIRTY (another snub at Best Director) deserves the highest prize more.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win : Steven Spielberg - LINCOLN
Should Win : Steven Spielberg - LINCOLN
Should Have Been Nominated : Kathryn Bigelow - ZDT
Now that both Ben Afflect and Kathryn Bigelow are not nominated, it's no stopping for Steven Spielberg for his film does receive the most nominations. However, if there's a possible spoiler I will think it might be Michael Haneke instead of Ang Lee like others predicted.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win : Daniel Day-Lewis - LINCOLN
Should Win : Daniel Day-Lewis - LINCOLN
Should Have Been Nominated : John Hawkes - THE SESSIONS
Can anyone tumble Daniel Day-Lewis from the throne? Unlikely, not even the globally loved Hugh Jackman. SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK? Yes, the movie is loved by so many voters but Bradley Cooper as an Oscar winner in the same year of another HANGOVER film being released? No thank you.
BEST ACTRESSWill Win : Emmanuelle Riva - AMOUR
Should Win : Jessica Chastain - ZDT
Should Have Been Nominated : -
I'm torn between Emmanuelle Riva and Jennifer Lawrence. At this point I think they are the only possible winner. Yes, there are still lots of people predicting Jessica Chastain but as much as I'd want her to win I don't think she will. I'm going with Riva, assuming they'd want to reward a veteran actress & let the youngster prove herself in coming few years.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTORWill Win : Tommy Lee Jones - LINCOLN
Should Win : I'd say none, but if I must pick one I'd say Tommy Lee Jones
Should Have Been Nominated : Garrett Hedlund - ON THE ROAD, Ezra Miller - THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER
This is truly the hardest category to predict, and also the category with the least worthy nominees (but that is another story worthy of a whole lengthy article, so I shall abstain myself from complaining here). Christoph Waltz is likely to win as he is actually the lead with lots of screen time but he's won too recently, so is Philip Seymour Hoffman & Alan Arkin. That leaves Tommy Lee Jones & Robert De Niro, but since I must choose one I'd say Tommy Lee Jones. As for the snub, there are so many worthy candidates I only listed down the top two on my mind. Both Garrett Hedlund and Ezra Miller not only deserve the nomination they actually deserve the win.
Will Win : Anne Hathaway - LES MISERABLES
Should Win : Sally Field - LINCOLN
Should Have Been Nominated : Anne Hathaway - THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
Yes, I actually think Anne Hathaway deserves this win but it's not for the movie she's nominated for. She gives a far better performance in DARK KNIGHT RISES. If I have to pick from the five nominated performances, I'd say Sally Field should have won just by the fact that she succeeded in not letting DDL overshadow her (not an easy task). Plus, it's a bias for me since I'm such a big fan of Brothers & Sisters.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Will Win : AMOUR (o), ARGO (a)
Should Win : ZERO DARK THIRTY (o), LINCOLN (a)
Should Have Been Nominated : LOOPER (o), CLOUD ATLAS (a), THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER (a)
If Emmanuelle Riva loses Best Actress then here's a good place to reward AMOUR outside of Foreign Language Film. ZERO DARK THIRTY and DJANGO UNCHAINED might suffer from the controversies surrounding them. As for Adapted Screenplay, because ARGO can't just win Best Picture without other wins so I expect it to win here too, despite the fact that LINCOLN has a better screenplay. But if I had the say, I'd nominate & name CLOUD ATLAS the winner, because to adapt a seemingly unfilmable novel (no, I'm not talking about LIFE OF PI) and make it work is no small feat.
Will Win : BRAVE
Should Win : WRECK-IT-RALPH
Should Have Been Nominated : -
This is another category my crystal ball can't give me a clear answer. It's a toss between 3 films: BRAVE, PARANORMAN & FRANKENWEENIE. Any of these three could win, even WRECK-IT-RALPH is possible. But I predict they'd want to welcome Pixar back to the podium after the much criticized year they had in 2011.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win : SKYFALL
Should Win : LIFE OF PI
Should Have Been Nominated : CLOUD ATLAS
They'd want to reward Roger Deakins for his 10th nominations for such a beloved film. But LIFE OF PI's success mostly can be attributed to its stunning visual so I think it should have won here.
Will Win : ANNA KARENINA
Should Win : ANNA KARENINA
Should Have Been Nominated : CLOUD ATLAS
A lavish production like ANNA KARENINA will surely capture the hearts of the voters. THE HOBBIT has good production design too but it's not something too different from The Lord of the Rings Trilogy so it's unlikely they will reward the team again.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win : LINCOLN
Should Win : ANNA KARENINA
Should Have Been Nominated : CLOUD ATLAS
They like to split Production Design & Costume Design, so I guess LINCOLN win this since no other technical category it's likely to win anymore.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will Win : LES MISERABLES
Should Win : THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
Should Have Been Nominated : CLOUD ATLAS
It's shocking when CLOUD ATLAS did not even make it to the semi-final.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win : ARGO
Should Win : ZERO DARK THIRTY
Should Have Been Nominated : CLOUD ATLAS
Again, ARGO is likely to win this for the same reason it will win the screenplay (see above), but ZERO DARK THIRTY's team should be rewarded by making a 2.5 hour movie feels like every moment and every scene deserves to be in the film.
BEST SOUND MIXING & BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win : SKYFALL (mixing), LIFE OF PI (editing)
Should Win : -
Should Have Been Nominated : -
Wild guess. I have limited knowledge in the sound categories so I shall not say who should win.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTSWill Win : LIFE OF PI
Should Win : THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
Should Have Been Nominated : CLOUD ATLAS
LIFE OF PI, nominated in 11 categories, is bound to win somewhere. Where else to reward the film other than the visual which makes the film so successful? But the visual of THE HOBBIT, despite feeling like a repeat from LOTR trilogy, is still a stunning work from The Shire to Goblin's cave, from the trolls to the big eagles.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win : LIFE OF PI
Should Win : ANNA KARENINA
Should Have Been Nominated : CLOUD ATLAS
Okay, at this point you should be able to guess which is my favorite movie in 2012 which did not make it to the Oscar. I'm still puzzled as to how the voters can ignore such an amazing film, and did not give it even one technical nomination.
Will Win :
Should Win : SKYFALL
Should Have Been Nominated : Safe & Sound (THE HUNGER GAMES)
Yes, Safe & Sound is not eligible but it does not change the fact that it's a good song for the film. One of the most successful film of 2012 should have been nominated in at least one category. Plus, this'll give Taylor Swift a chance to revive her image after she allegedly upset over Adele's win at the Golden Globe. Maybe she can overact a joyful reaction and give Adele a hug or something? Err... okay maybe not.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win : AMOUR
Should Win : AMOUR
Should Have Been Nominated : THE INTOUCHABLES
Okay, four locks of the night, not three.
And that's my prediction. I shall not do the 3 short categories plus the Documentary since I'm not familiar with those nominees. Come next Monday morning (Malaysia time) I will know whether to keep my crystal ball or to toss it out to the garbage can.
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